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The present study analyses the geographical distribution, conservation status, and nomenclature of Peruvian endemic Pedersenia weberbaueri. The species distribution was modelled using MaxEnt based on occurrence data and bioclimatic variables. The conservation status of the species was assessed against the categories and criteria of the IUCN Red List, and nomenclatural and typification issues were resolved. The potential distribution map of P. weberbaueri shows that the species is restricted to the seasonally dry tropical forests of the Marañón valley within a narrow latitudinal, longitudinal, and elevational range. Consequently, we propose to categorise the species as Endangered (EN) and provide the necessary information for its inclusion in the IUCN Red List. Finally, we resolve nomenclatural issues and designate a lectotype. The results contribute to the biological knowledge of P. weberbaueri and support subsequent conservation management plans.
El presente estudio analiza la distribución geográfica, el estado de conservación y la nomenclatura de la endémica peruana Pedersenia weberbaueri. La distribución de especies se modeló usando MaxEnt con base en datos de ocurrencia y variables bioclimáticas. Se evaluó el estado de conservación de la especie frente a las categorías y criterios de la Lista Roja de la UICN y se resolvieron cuestiones de nomenclatura y tipificación. El mapa de distribución potencial de P. weberbaueri muestra que la especie está restringida a los bosques tropicales estacionalmente secos del valle del Marañón dentro de un estrecho rango latitudinal, longitudinal y altitudinal. En consecuencia, proponemos categorizar a la especie como En Peligro (EN) y brindar la información necesaria para su inclusión en la Lista Roja de la UICN. Finalmente, resolvemos cuestiones de nomenclatura y designamos un lectotipo. Los resultados contribuyen al conocimiento biológico de P. weberbaueri y respaldan los planes de manejo de conservación posteriores.
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Objective:To analyze the main factors affecting the <italic>Ziziphus jujuba</italic> distribution and expand the understanding of its distribution and the corresponding influencing factors by comparing the distribution sites of <italic>Z. jujuba</italic> predicted by models with those recorded in the literature. Method:More than 200 distribution sites of <italic>Z. jujuba</italic> accompanied by 55 environmental factors were obtained from literature and specimen review. The environmental factors that affect the distribution of <italic>Z. jujuba</italic> were explored by maximum entropy （MaxEnt） model， and the potential distribution areas of <italic>Z. jujuba</italic> in China were analyzed by ArcGIS， followed by the verification of the main environmental factors using receiver-operating characteristic （ROC） curve and Jackknife method. Result:The area under the curve （AUC） values for the test data and training data were both greater than 0.9， which perfectly satisfied the standard， indicating that the research results were accurate and reliable. Conclusion:The annual average temperature， the average temperature in May， the average temperature in the warmest season， vegetation type， soil type， average temperature in June， average temperature in September， and average temperature in August are proved to be the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of <italic>Z. jujuba</italic>， which can be found almost all over China， except for Heilongjiang and Tibet. <italic>Z. jujuba</italic> is most suitable to be planted in southeastern Sichuan， Chongqing， southern Gansu， Ningxia， most areas of central Shaanxi， eastern and southwestern Shanxi， Henan， eastern and northern Hubei， northern and eastern Anhui， Shandong， Hebei， Beijing， Tianjin， western Liaoning， and Zhejiang. As revealed by literature review， the most suitable growing areas of <italic>Z. jujuba</italic> are southeastern Sichuan， central Shaanxi， southwestern Shanxi， western and northern Henan， Shandong， and southwestern and eastern Hebei.
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Objective To evaluate the impact of environmental and climatic factors on the distribution of suitable habitats of Haemaphysalis longicornis, and to predict the potential distribution of H. longicornis under different climate patterns in China. Methods Data pertaining to the distribution of H. longicornis were retrieved from public literatures. The effects of 19 climatic factors (annual mean temperature, annual mean temperature difference between day and night, isothermality, standard deviation of seasonal variation of temperature, maximum temperature of the warmest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature annual range, mean temperature of the wettest season, mean temperature of the driest season, mean temperature of the warmest season, mean temperature of the coldest season, annual mean precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, precipitation of the driest month, coefficient of variance of precipitation, precipitation of the wettest season, precipitation of the driest season, precipitation of the warmest season and precipitation of the coldest season) and 4 environmental factors (elevation, slope, slope aspect and vegetation coverage) on the potential distribution of H. longicornis were assessed using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model based on the H. longicornis distribution data and climatic and environmental data, and the potential distribution of H. longicornis was predicted under the RCP 2.6 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Results Among the environmental and climatic factors affecting the geographical distribution of H. longicornis in China, the factors contributing more than 10% to the distribution of H. longicornis mainly included the precipitation of the driest month (26.0%), annual mean temperature (11.2%), annual mean precipitation (10.0%) and elevation (24.2%). Under the current climate pattern, the high-, medium- and low-suitable habitats of H. longicornis are 1 231 900, 1 696 200 km2 and 1 854 400 km2 in China, respectively. The distribution of H. longicornis increased by 336 100 km2 and 367 300 km2 in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 2.6 emissions scenario, and increased by 381 000 km2 and 358 000 km2 in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario in China, respectively. Conclusions Climatic and environmental factors, such as precipitation, temperature and elevation, greatly affect the distribution of H. longicornis in China, and the suitable habitats of H. longicornis may expand in China under different climate patterns in future.
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Introducción: El proceso de invasión biológica es una de las mayores amenazas a la biodiversidad y ecosistemas, con actuales y potenciales impactos en la salud pública y conservación. Procambarus clarkii es un crustáceo decápodo, originario del sur de Estados Unidos y noreste de México, que puede adaptarse a diferentes condiciones ambientales debido a su plasticidad ecológica. Objetivo: Se caracterizó el nicho ecológico fundamental existente de Procambarus clarkii con el fin de predecir las áreas con idoneidad ambiental para el potencial establecimiento de la especie en Suramérica y Colombia. Métodos: Usamos modelos de nichos ecológicos calibrados en el área nativa, elaborados con el algoritmo Maxent, basados en datos de presencia extraídos de GBIF y variables hidroclimáticas de ecosistemas acuáticos a una resolución de 1 km2. Resultados: En Suramérica el modelo indicó un potencial geográfico amplio de invasión mostrando áreas ambientalmente idóneas para la presencia y expansión hacia Colombia, Venezuela, Perú, Ecuador, Brasil, Guyana, Surinam, Bolivia, Uruguay, Argentina, Paraguay y Chile. En Colombia, el modelo predijo que las áreas idóneas se ubican principalmente en el norte y oriente, incluidos diversos ecosistemas, como: bosques tropicales, bosques basales, bosques riparios y sabanas. La especie tiene una alta posibilidad de expandirse hacia áreas de distribución de latitudes bajas, ocupando zonas hacia la parte norte de la región Caribe colombiana, en departamentos de Magdalena, Cesar, Córdoba y Atlántico. También se predijo áreas con idoneidad ambiental en el oriente de Colombia, hacia la extensión de la planicie oriental de la Orinoquia, una región de baja altitud en: Arauca, Casanare, Meta y Vichada. Conclusión: En este estudio se aplican modelos de nichos ecológicos, que puede ser de interés en la planeación de estrategias o la creación de planes de manejo, como sistemas de alerta temprana para evitar el establecimiento de esta especie.
Introduction: Biological invasions are a major threat to biodiversity and ecosystems, with current and potential impacts on public health and conservation. Procambarus clarkii is a decapod crustacean, native to the Southern United States and Northeastern Mexico, which may adapt to different environmental conditions due to its ecological plasticity. Objective: The existing fundamental ecological niche of Procambarus clarkii was characterized in order to predict areas with environmental suitability for the potential establishment of the species in South America and Colombia. Methods: We used models of calibrated ecological niches in the native area, elaborated with the Maxent algorithm, based on occurrence data extracted from GBIF and hydroclimatic variables of aquatic ecosystems at a resolution of 1 km2. Results: The model indicated a wide geographic area for invasion potential in South America, predicting environmentally suitable areas for the presence and expansion towards Colombia, Venezuela, Peru, Ecuador, Brazil, Guyana, Surinam, Bolivia, Uruguay, Argentina, Paraguay and Chile. In Colombia, suitable areas predicted by the model are located mainly in the North and East of the country, spanning a diversity of ecosystems, such as tropical forests, basal forests, riparian forests and savannas. The species has a high possibility of expanding into low latitude distribution areas, occupying areas towards the Northern part of the Colombian Caribbean region, in the departments of Magdalena, Cesar, Cordoba and Atlántico. Suitability areas environmental were also predicted in Eastern Colombia, towards the extension of the Eastern plain of the Orinoquia, a low altitude region in Arauca, Casanare, Meta and Vichada. Conclusion: This study applies ecological niche models, which may be of interest in the planning of strategies or the creation of management plans, such as early warning systems that prevent the establishment of this species.
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Animals , Decapoda/growth & development , Colombia , Astacoidea/growth & development , Introduced Species/statistics & numerical dataABSTRACT
Using the 260 geographical distribution records of Polygonatum cyrtonema in China, combined with 53 environmental factors, the maximum entropy modeling(MaxEnt) was used to study the ecological factors affecting the suitability distribution of P. cyrtonema. The ArcGIS software was used to predict the potential distribution of the population of P. cyrtonema. The dominant factors were chosen by using the Jackknife test and the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC) curve was used to evaluate the simulation. The results showed that high value of area under curve(AUC) denoted good results, which significantly differed from random predictions. Based on the evaluation criterion, the accuracies of the predictions of P. cyrtonema potential distribution in the current periods were excellent. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable growth of P. cyrtonema were the monthly precipitation, the wettest monthly precipitation, the annual average temperature range and the precipitation of November, March, February, April, May and October. There are 9 environmental factors in soil type. The potential fitness of P. cyrtonema in China is high, mainly concentra-ted in Hunan, western Hubei, Guangdong, northeastern Guangxi, southeastern Guizhou, Jiangxi, southwestern Anhui, Fujian, Zhejiang, Shaanxi, southwestern Henan and Chongqing. The growth distribution of the potential distribution area of P. cyrtonema was divided, and the zoning map of the growth suitability of P. cyrtonema was formed. Through the comparative analysis of the potential distribution range based on MaxEnt and the distribution range of literature records, the understanding of the distribution range of P. cyrtonema was expanded.
Subject(s)
China , Ecology , Entropy , Polygonatum , Research Design , SoilABSTRACT
Introduction: Understanding how species respond to climate change is critical for implementing conservation strategies. Objective: We explain through potential distributions and changes in altitudinal variation, the possible impacts of climate change in an endangered micro-endemic rodent of Mexico with narrow altitudinal range, Heteromys nelsoni and a rodent with a wide distributional and altitudinal range, Heteromys goldmani. Methods: We obtained historical and current records of both Heteromys species. Potential distribution models were generated using Maxent, including altitudes for each species and bioclimatic layers. We determined the Extent of Occurrence and Area of Occupancy for H. nelsoni according to the criteria of the IUCN in order to generate information about its risk status. Results: The altitude is not a variable that determines a shift in the distribution caused by climate change. In contrast, the temperature and precipitation are important for the potential distribution of both Heteromys species. The future changes in climatic conditions could reduce the area of suitable habitat for both species. Conclusions: The distribution surface is not greater than 33.44 km2 for H. nelsoni. Therefore, is urgent to re-evaluate their conservation status by the IUCN, mainly in its B criterion, and to take specific actions for their conservation. We suggest the creation of a terrestrial protected area.
Introducción: El entendimiento de cómo las especies responden al cambio climático es crítico para la implementación de estrategias de conservación. Objetivo: Explicar a través de distribuciones potenciales y cambios en la variación altitudinal, los posibles impactos del cambio climático en un roedor micro endémico de México, en peligro de extinción y con un rango altitudinal estrecho, Heteromys nelsoni y un roedor con una amplia distribución y rango altitudinal, Heteromys goldmani. Metodología: Obtuvimos registros históricos y actuales de ambas especies. Los modelos de distribución potencial se generaron utilizando Maxent, incluyendo altitudes y capas bioclimáticas. Determinamos la extensión de su presencia y el área de ocupación para H. nelsoni según los criterios de la IUCN, para generar información sobre su estado de riesgo. Resultados: La altitud no es una variable que determina un cambio en la distribución causada por el cambio climático. En contraste, la temperatura y precipitación son importantes para la distribución potencial de ambas especies de Heteromys. Los análisis sugieren que los cambios futuros en las condiciones climáticas podrían reducir el área de hábitat adecuado para ambas especies. Conclusión: La superficie de distribución de H. nelsoni no es mayor a 33.44 km2. Es urgente reevaluar su estado de conservación de la UICN, principalmente en su criterio B y tomar medidas específicas para su conservación. Sugerimos la creación de un área terrestre protegida.
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Resumen La distribución geográfica y la calidad del hábitat son criterios fundamentales para evaluar el grado de riesgo de extinción y amenaza de las especies. Campylorhynchus yucatanicus es un ave endémica de la costa norte de la Península de Yucatán, México con distribución restringida a una estrecha franja de hábitat, entre los estados de Campeche y Yucatán. En la actualidad, la costa yucateca ha perdido más de la mitad de la vegetación de duna costera y otros hábitats se han modificado principalmente por falta de un plan de urbanización y mal aprovechamiento de los recursos naturales. Estos factores amenazan a C. yucatanicus, que está catalogada como una especie casi amenazada por la UICN y como una especie en peligro de extinción por la legislación mexicana, NOM-059-2010. En este estudio se modeló su distribución potencial utilizando 64 registros de presencia de variadas fuentes (1960 y 2009), un conjunto de variables climáticas y una capa de Índice de vegetación de diferencia normalizada (NDVI). Para evaluar el grado de conectividad del paisaje se empleó un mapa de tipos de vegetación y uso de suelo, distancia a los poblados y a las carreteras asfaltadas. El modelo de distribución potencial arrojó una distribución potencial de 2 711 km2 aproximadamente, 2 % del área total de la Península de Yucatán. De esta área, solo el 27 % está protegido con categoría de Reserva de la Biósfera y sólo el 10 % corresponde a áreas núcleo de conservación, con restricciones de uso de suelo y protección relativamente efectiva. Las poblaciones de la región de Ría Lagartos y del oeste de Celestún, parecen ser las más aisladas, teniendo en cuenta el modelo de conectividad del paisaje. La permeabilidad del paisaje entre fragmentos de vegetación de duna cerca de la costa es baja, principalmente por la distribución de las zonas urbanas. Los resultados pueden ser usados para establecer estrategias de manejo y sugieren que la especie se encuentra en un estado de conservación más delicado del que hasta ahora se había descrito por la UICN. Consideramos que C. yucatanicus debe tener categoría en peligro de la UICN según su distribución y la conectividad de paisaje actual.
Abstract Geographic distribution and habitat quality are key criteria for assessing the degree of risk of species extinction threat. Campylorhynchusyucatanicus(Yucatán Wren, Troglodytidae) is an endemic bird of the Northern coast of the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico, with a distribution restricted to a narrow strip of habitat, between Campeche and Yucatán states. Currently, the Yucatán coast has lost more than half of the coastal dune vegetation, and other habitats have been modified mainly because there is no urban development plan and the natural resources management is poor. These factors threaten C. yucatanicus, which is listed as a near threatened species by IUCN and as an endangered species by Mexican law NOM059-2010. In this paper, C. yucatanicus´s potential distribution was modeled using 64 presence records from several sources (1960 y 2009), a set of climate variables, and a vegetation index layer of normalized difference (NDVI). To assess the degree of landscape connectivity we used a map of vegetation types and land use, distance to villages and paved roads. The potential distribution model showed an area of approximately 2 711 km2, which is 2 % of the total area of the Yucatán Peninsula distribution. In this area, only 27 % is protected by Biosphere Reserve category and only 10 % belong to core conservation areas, with land use restrictions and relatively effective protection. The populations from Ría Lagartos and Western Celestún regions appear to be the most isolated following the model of landscape connectivity. Landscape permeability among fragments of dune vegetation near the coast is low, mainly due to the distribution of urban areas. These results can be used to establish management strategies, and show that the species is in more delicate conditions than what it has been described by IUCN. We consider that C. yucatanicus should be given endangered category by IUCN, because of their distribution and the context of the current landscape connectivity.
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In order to study the ecology suitability of Pterocephalus hookeri, and provide a reference for GAP planting location and regional development, the Maxent model and GIS technology were used to investigate ecology suitability regions for P. hookeri based on the distribution points collected from Chinese virtual herbarium, the references and field trips. The potential distribution areas mainly concentrated in the eastern Tibet, western Sichuan, southern Qinghai, northwest Yunnan, and southern Gansu. There were 7 major environmental factors to have obvious influence on ecology suitability distributions of P. hookeri, including altitude (contribution rate of 62%), precipitation of warmest quarter (contribution rate of 14.4%), coefficient of variation of precipitation seasonality (contribution rate of 7.2%), mean temperature of driest quarter (contribution rate of 3.5%), the electrical conductivity of top and sub-soil (contribution rate of 3%), the total exchangeable bases in the top- and subsoil (contribution rate of 2.4%) and SD of temperature seasonality (contribution rate of 2.2%). The study of the ecological suitability regionalization of P. hookeri based on Maxent model can provide scientific basis for the selection of artificial planting base and GAP planting location.
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Wildlife tending and artificial cultivation is an important way to protect the wild resources of Rhodiola crenulata. It is a study hotspot at present. The distribution information of R. crenulata was collected by query data and field survey, the ecological suitability regionalization was conducted based on maximum entropy model combine with ecological factors, including climate, soil and altitude. To provide the reference for production layout, suitable planting area and the selection of artificial planting base by studying the ecological suitability regionalization of R. crenulata. The potential distribution areas mainly concentrated in the easen Tibet, western Sichuan, southern Qinghai, and Gansu Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan Diqing Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture. There were 5 major environmental factors to have obvious influence on ecology suitability distributions of R. crenulata, including altitude (contribution rate of 61.8%), precipitation of warmest quarter (contribution rate of 19%), the coefficient of variation of precipitation seasonality (contribution rate of 4.7%), the SD of temperature seasonality (contribution rate of 4%), mean temperature of driest quarter (contribution rate of 2.5%). The AUCs of ROC curve were both above 0.9, indicating that the predictive results with the Maxent model were highly precise. The study of the ecological suitability regionalization of R. crenulata based on Maxent can provide a scientific basis for the selection of artificial planting base.
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The use of ecological niche models (ENM) to generate potential geographic distributions of species has rapidly increased in ecology, conservation and evolutionary biology. Many methods are available and the most used are Maximum Entropy Method (MAXENT) and the Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production (GARP). Recent studies have shown that MAXENT perform better than GARP. Here we used the statistics methods of ROC - AUC (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve) and bootstrap to evaluate the performance of GARP and MAXENT in generate potential distribution models for 39 species of New World coral snakes. We found that values of AUC for GARP ranged from 0.923 to 0.999, whereas those for MAXENT ranged from 0.877 to 0.999. On the whole, the differences in AUC were very small, but for 10 species GARP outperformed MAXENT. Means and standard deviations for 100 bootstrapped samples with sample sizes ranging from 3 to 30 species did not show any trends towards deviations from a zero difference in AUC values of GARP minus AUC values of MAXENT. Ours results suggest that further studies are still necessary to establish under which circumstances the statistical performance of the methods vary. However, it is also important to consider the possibility that this empirical inductive reasoning may fail in the end, because we almost certainly could not establish all potential scenarios generating variation in the relative performance of models.
A utilização de modelos de nicho ecológico (ENM) para gerar distribuições geográficas potenciais de espécies tem aumentado rapidamente nas áreas de ecologia, biologia da conservação e biologia evolutiva. O Método de Máxima Entropia (MAXENT) e o Algoritmo Genético para Produção de Conjunto de Regras (GARP) estão entre os métodos mais utilizados, e estudos recentes têm atribuído ao MAXENT um melhor desempenho no processo de modelagem com relação ao GARP. Neste trabalho, foram utilizados os métodos estatísticos ROC - AUC (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve) e de reamostragem (bootstrap) para avaliar o desempenho do GARP e MAXENT em gerar modelos de distribuição potencial para 39 espécies de cobras corais do Novo Mundo. Os resultados mostraram que os valores de AUC para o GARP variaram de 0,923 a 0,999, enquanto que para o MAXENT variaram de 0,877 a 0,999. Em geral, as diferenças de AUC entre os dois métodos foram pequenas, embora o GARP tenha apresentado melhor desempenho que o MAXENT para 10 espécies. Valores de média e desvio padrão de 100 amostras variando de 3 a 30 espécies não revelaram qualquer tendência de desvio em relação à diferença zero entre valores de AUC do GARP menos valores de AUC do MAXENT. Estes resultados sugerem que mais estudos serão necessários para determinar sob quais circunstâncias o desempenho estatístico dos modelos varia, embora seja importante considerar também a possibilidade de que argumentações empírico-indutivas em favor de um ou outro método podem falhar, já que é quase impossível estabelecer todos os cenários potenciais causadores de variação no desempenho dos modelos.